Sunday, 15 September 2013

The Cleveland Financial Stress Index

A new coincident indicator of financial stress.

"The level of the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI) has decreased in the past few months, indicating a lower level of systemic financial stress. Although the most recent reading of the index from September 4 is in Grade 2 or a “normal stress period,” the index had been in a Grade 1 or “low stress period” for 49 days since June 1. The index currently stands at −0.43, which is up 0.63 points from a recent low on July 15, 2013. (The points refer to the standardized distance from the mean or the z-score). The index is down 1.32 points over the past year and is 3.52 points lower than its historical peak in December 2008."

Check out how this indicator moved into the Grade 4 category in late 2007, and remained in upper Grade 3 or Grade 4 throughout most of 2008.